In RSG, we want to be maximizing the rate at which we are entering bastions for a given cutoff/bastion enter goal time. Boyenn and I have developed a way to predict how well a given session is for a given bastion enter goal using some very basic data collection and statistics. Since this is a statistic later in the run than nph, it should be replacing nph as the primary statistic RSG players focus on.
The basic idea behind it stems from the equation for bastion enter rate:
bph = nph * bastion conversion
where bph = bastions per hour, nph = nethers per hour, and bastion conversion = how many of those nethers enter the bastion
When we enter the nether earlier, we have more time to get to the bastion (higher bastion conversion), but we have lower nph. When we enter the nether later, we have less time to get to the bastion (lower bastion conversion), but we have higher nph. Somewhere between these lies an optimal balance between nph and bastion conversion.
In individual sessions, raw bastion rate wouldn’t be very useful because bastions vary so much between sessions. To fix session bastion variance, we can “predict” how well a session is for bastions by using a runner’s historical bastion conversion data. For a given session, we can take their nether enter distribution for a session, getting an average expected bastion conversion, and multiply that by their nph for that session to get a predicted bph metric for that session. That probably sounded like a lot, but ultimately what this means is that we can predict how well a given session is for bastions. This metric is called “Predicted bastions per hour”, or Pbph for short.
We can then determine what nether enter cutoffs players should use to maximize their predicted bastions per hour, striking that balance between nph and bastion conversion. In my own personal data collection late last year, I had found that a sub 1:50 cutoff was best for a sub 2:30 bastion goal.
This is all well and good, but we don’t have the infrastructure to make this statistic widely available yet. The PaceMan devs have said they’re interested in this idea, but I haven’t heard back from them. I do think that this should be replacing nph as it gives us information about later in the run.
note: when I say “bastions per hour”, this would include a cutoff time for the bastion. Shown below is a graph from my runs showing the seconds of travel in the nether available vs. the bastion conversion.
More info on this and other info dumps here 3 Dimensions of RSG Master Doc - Google Docs